Forum Archive Index - January 2000

["Mike Hudson" <mikehudson@clear.net.nz>]

This is an interesting comment form the ABN ARBRO client newsletter of 13th
January which I am sure they won't mind me sharing as it does make a good
point about the hype surrounding the .com stocks

"Our Japan strategist, Darrel Whitten, has worked out the revenue growth
figures implied by some of the current share prices.  In Yahoo's case, it's
56% annual growth every year until 2013.  Likewise, Amazon.com's revenues
are implicitly expected to grow by 38% per year until 2013.  Because of the
miracle of compounding, there are some problems with these implicit growth
rates.  For Amazon, 38% annual growth would take revenue to almost US$100bn
in 2013, while industry forecasts put the total US market for books and
music in that year at $85bn.  No wonder Amazon has to diversity"

Cheers
You have had enough from me for one night
Mike H





-----Original Message-----
From: hugh webber <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>
To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Date: Thursday, 13 January 2000 10:11 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] internet shares nz


>Nice one Phil, internet companies making profits are as scarce as hen's
>teeth.
>On a more serious note there's a very good article in the Economist of Dec
>18 - 30th 1999 on page 117
>titled 'Ill Prepared Online Retailers' which is the stuff of nightmares. It
>points out that this area has concentrated on setting up the website and
>marketing and everything else has gone to blazes, absolutely no planning or
>co-ordination and it will take years to sort out.
>People buying goods quite often find they're out of stock, they never
>arrive, they get charged twice or more, they get stuff they didn't order
>and when they complain it is suggested they auction it off on the web.
>I think I'll stick to Sausage Software and give the E-com part of the
>internet stocks a miss.
>
>
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>


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