Forum Archive Index - December 1999

["Mark Hubbard" <mhubbard@es.co.nz>]

Talking about Fernz (my last post), I believe Fernz to be a very undervalued
share (to continue an earlier thread).

The shares are currently trading on historical lows, since the announcement
of the move to Australia (which is actually going to improve profitability).
In his last address the CEO stated that the company forecasts it will double
its bottom line over the next five years. Averaging this out to a 20%
earnings increase per annum over the next five years, then using a
conservative 7% to 5% increase in earnings per annum from then on, this
would give the share, according to my calculations, a value in the range of
$7.50 to $8.00 (discounting at 15%). Its currently trading at only $4.35.
(Calculations use base earning of $66 million from the 1999 year). Of
course, some may disagree with this valuation.

Company has a very good history, plus seems to be one of the few companies
in Australasia which offers a vehicle into biotechnology. In my mind, to
continue the earlier thread, this would be my pick for the new century.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, email sharechat-request@sharechat.co.nz
with "unsubscribe" in the body of the message, or use the unsubscription
form at http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html.